Central MA is the GOP Hotbed

Friday, September 26, 2014

Nicholas Handy, GoLocalWorcester Contributor

While Massachusetts as a whole is still considered a Democratic state, a closer look at the cities and towns within the Commonwealth shows a regionalization of the political landscape taking place.

According to data from the Massachusetts Secretary of Elections Division, the political landscape of Massachusetts has changed over the past few elections, creating a regionalization of the state where Central Massachusetts is a political hot bed for Republicans.

“This has been a developing trend in Central Massachusetts for about six years now,” said Paul Giorgio, a longtime Democratic Party activist who worked with the Clinton campaign. “Central Massachusetts has become increasingly Republican while the city of Worcester has remained a Democratic bastion. I’m not sure if this is something that candidates can change; I think it deals with demographic changes.”

In the last statewide election – the 2013 Senate race where Ed Markey defeated Gabriel Gomez – the vast majority of cities and towns within Central Massachusetts were Republican, with 27 of the cities and towns that voted Republican leaning toward the party by a margin of 25-percent or greater. Worcester was one of the few cities that kept a Democratic foothold in the region.

Changing Demographics

Local and statewide politicians and pundits have seen the changes occur in the statewide political landscape for five or six years now, something that can be attributed to changing demographics throughout the state.

Demographic and age differences between rural, suburban, and urban areas of Massachusetts are becoming more apparent, something that certainly emerges in the world of politics. With the two parties taking slightly different approaches to campaigning and gathering voter support, a regionalized Massachusetts is starting to take shape.

“Most of the voters in Massachusetts are unenrolled and political parties are not what they once were,” said Bill McCarthy, Worcester rep of the Massachusetts Republican Party. “In many of the larger cities in Massachusetts have strong Democratic political machines which influence voters in those cities. In more suburban and rural areas – like in parts of Central Massachusetts – voters are being influenced by these grassroots Republican campaigns.”

Effect on Candidates

2013 Senate election

Although looking at a map of the data shows almost a 50-50 split in regards to the colors red and blue, when looking at population and the margin of victory in specific cities, Democrats still hold the advantage because of their stronghold on the larger population areas of the state.

If Republicans want to take the advantage in the upcoming election and pull out a victory, many are saying that they need to begin to appeal to the wealth of unregistered voters in the state, rather than focusing on cities that clearly lean toward one party or the other.

“A better bet for Republicans would be taking steps to re-color the map rather than trying to tread the increasingly narrow path it offers,” said Steve Koczela, President of The MassINC Polling Group, in a recent article for Poll Vault for which he is the lead writer. “Baker is unlikely to flip the deeper blue cities red. But if he can pull them closer to the center, shading them a lighter blue than they have gone recently, he will reduce the risk of his own strong regions being swamped by a sea of urban Democratic votes.”

Related Slideshow: MA’s Biggest Political Comebacks in History

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Congressman Jim McGovern

Lost first congressional run in 1994

McGovern first ran for Congress in 1994, but lost in the Democratic primary to Massachusetts State Representative Kevin O’Sullivan. McGovern ran again two years later and defeated Republican incumbent Peter Blute.

He would go on to be re-elected seven times to Massachusetts’ 3rd congressional district. Now in his ninth term, McGovern currently represents Massachusetts’ 2nd congressional district. He serves as the second ranking Democrat on the Rules Committee, and as a member of the House Agriculture Committee.

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Former Gov. Michael Dukakis

Lost 1978 Democratic gubernatorial primary

After serving one term as Governor of Massachusetts, Dukakis was defeated by Edward King in the 1978 Democratic primary. Despite the major defeat, Dukakis was able to beat King four years later in the Democratic primary and would go on to win the general election against Republican opponent John Winthrop Sears. Dukakis also won re-election in 1986.

In addition to serving three terms as Governor, Dukakis also served four terms in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and was the Democratic Presidential nominee in 1988. Dukakis went on to serve for over a decade as a visiting professor at Northeastern University and as a lecturer in public management at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

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Former Gov. Mitt Romney

Lost 1994 US Senate Race

After losing the 1994 U.S. Senate race to incumbent Ted Kennedy, Romney staged a huge political comeback in 2002 when he was elected Governor of Massachusetts. During his tenure, Romney signed Massachusetts’ health reform law, also known as “Romneycare” into law. In 2008, Romney ran an unsuccessful bid to secure his party’s Presidential nomination, but would go on to be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012.

Romney has kept a low profile since losing to President Obama, but did join the board of Marriott International for a third stint as a director in December 2012. Outside of politics, Romney's positions have included being CEO of Bain Capital and president and CEO of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee for the 2012 Winter Olympic Games.

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Former House Speaker Tip O’Neill

Lost first ever electoral bid

Although he is known as the second longest-serving House Speaker in US history, O’Neill’s political career actually began with defeat. In fact, O’Neill lost his first-ever electoral bid in 1932 when he ran for a seat on the Cambridge City Council. The defeat would prove to be an anomaly for O’Neill who would go on to be elected to the Massachusetts House of Representatives in 1936 and later, the US House of Representatives in 1953. During his 34-year tenure in the US House, O’Neill served as Speaker from 1977 until his retirement in 1987.

After his retirement, O’Neill published an autobiography in 1987 and was presented the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 1991. He died in 1994 as the result of heart attack.

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35th President John F. Kennedy

Lost vice presidential bid in 1956

Despite an unblemished electoral record that included being elected to the US House of Representatives in 1946 and the US Senate in 1952, Kennedy suffered an embarrassing loss in 1956 when he was the vice presidential candidate for Adlai Stevenson. One of the most lopsided elections in presidential history, incumbent President Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral vote compared to just 73 for Stevenson.

Kennedy would go on to win the presidency four years later by defeating then-Vice President Richard Nixon. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963 and is remembered as one of the most influential presidents in US history.

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Former Senator Ted Kennedy

Lost 1980 Democratic presidential primary

After serving 18 years in the US Senate, Kennedy made his one and only bid for the presidency in 1980 and was defeated in the Democratic primary by incumbent President Jimmy Carter. Despite the tough loss, Kennedy would go on to serve in the US Senate until 2009, making him the fourth longest-serving senator in US history.

During his 47-year tenure, Kennedy played a major role in passing many laws that addressed health insurance, immigration, civil rights, education, and mental health benefits. He died of brain cancer in 2009.