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Giorgio: The Debate Over Fox’s Debate

Wednesday, August 05, 2015

 

Paul Giorgio

The first Republican debate took place Monday night at Saint Anslems College in New Hampshire. Notably absent were Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee, the Arkansas preacher turned one term governor, Fox talk show host and radical right wing religious zealot, who if elected, would make Sharia law seem civil. His positions on social issues are downright frightening.

The alleged debate wasn’t really a debate at all. It was interviews where each candidate had 3 minutes to make a pitch to the audience. The first real debate takes place tomorrow evening in Ohio.

Let's talk about the main attraction at this Thursday’s Fox News debate, Donald Trump. By boycotting the St. A’s debate, Trump has amped up the anticipation for the Fox show.  This is all part of the Trump reality TV shows. No one else will matter on Thursday -only the Donald.  He will set expectations and the story line. So what can we expect? Donald Trump will be the main attraction with everyone else just a sideshow.  Although Trump can be a sideshow all by himself. Part sword swallower and part bearded lady, Trump is a freak. He can put both feet in his mouth at once. Trump will be outrageous and everyone else will have to react to him. Some will agree with him, in an attempt to gather some of Trump’s votes, when he goes down in flames. This group could include Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee.

I think that Jen Bush will go out of his way to play to the middle and the November electorate. This may serve him well in the general election, but he has to get there first.  I think Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker will be in this camp also, as will Ohio Governor John Kasich. They all could be the adults on the stage. With only ten candidates on stage will any of them incur Fox’s wrath by mentioning those not invited the seven dwarfs who were relegated to the kids’ debate?

So how will senators Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz play it on Thursday? The other candidates invited are Ben Carson and the last spot will apparently go to Chris Christie.

The debate over the Debate.

So Fox News has decided that the following group should not be included: Rick Perry, Lindsay Graham, Rich Santorum, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Bobby Jindal and George Pataki  This group includes Senators, Governors and the only women in the field.
Fox News is deciding the field by limiting the number of debate participants.  They have gone from covering or in their case making up the news to being the news.

By their actions, they will have left the only women off-Carly Fiorino, One of the only minorities-Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, United States Senator Lindsay Graham, former Senators, and  governors

The Debate.

Trump by his shear obnoxiousness will try to dominate the debate and eat up as much time as he can.  Jeb Bush will attempt to distance himself from Trump, especially on immigration reform. Walker’s   plan may be to cozy up to the Donald, but contrast with him saying that he (Walker) has done all the tings Trump talks about.

Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio will try to move to the right of Trump, while Rand Paul will try to stake out a middle ground, by talking about government over reach under President Obama.
Governor Chris Christie will try to bully his way into being relevant.

Only six will make the news.

The press will come away talking only about a half dozen of the candidates, thus limiting the field further from the ten whom where whittled down from the 17.  This is all six months before any vote will be cast.

My prediction on who the six are that get talked about are the obvious, Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ben Carson and Marco Rubio.  Trump gets talked about because of his demeanor.  Bush will get talked about because he will play to the middle.  Scott Walker gets talked about because he is from a state that the Republicans need to win in order to win.  Ben Carson gets talked about because he is different from the white male politicians.  Rand Paul will be talked about because of his libertarian views and Rubio gets a mention, because he is Hispanic and of a different generation than the rest.

No one at the predebate debate will make the news unless they say something outrageous or storm that stage at the other debate

 

Related Slideshow: The 2016 President Candidates Ranked by Absurdity

InsideGov ranked the levels of absurdity for each candidate by these four criteria:

  • A consistently low 2015 polling average: consistently low poll numbers make campaigns more superfluous, and thus, more absurd
  • Extreme ideologies: candidates with extreme views—whether way to the left or way to the right—tend to be less viable, and thus, more ridiculous
  • Little-to-no years of elected office or active-duty military experience: inexperienced and unproven, these candidates are more prone to absurdity
  • Multiple attempts at the presidency: the more attempts, the less serious the candidate becomes

Prev Next

#21

Candidate: Scott Walker 

Absurdity Index: 37.1 (very low)

What InsideGov said

He might be the most boring candidate in the race, but he’s also the least ridiculous. The Governor of Wisconsin has 22 years of elected experience and consistently solid polling numbers for 2016.

While he leans more conservative than average, he takes few truly extreme positions. He’s the most reasonable candidate in the entire field, by InsideGov’s metrics.

Prev Next

#20

Candidate: Martin O'Malley

Absurdity Index: 39.4

What InsideGov said

By InsideGov’s calculations, the former Governor of Maryland is the most moderate Democrat in the field, and among the five most moderate candidates overall.

Even if he never gains traction against the mighty Clinton machine, we can expect O’Malley to add a measured, level-headed perspective to the Democratic primaries.

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#19

Candidate: Chris Christie

Absurdity Index: 39.7

What InsideGov said

While the Governor of New Jersey gets a bad rap for his bluster and blunt statements, the data suggests he’s one of the more reasonable candidates, on the whole. He’s moderate across almost every issue, and he's still alive in the polls.

“Bridgegate” might ultimately doom him, but his decision not to run for president in 2012 was classic, sensible Christie.

Prev Next

#18

Candidate: Hillary Clinton

Absurdity Index: 40.6

What InsideGov said

Clinton scores a few absurdity points across several categories: she’s only served eight years of elected office*, has run for president before, and is more liberal than all but one competitor. Still, her historically dominant position in the polls (nearly 50 points above her nearest challenger) means we have to take the former New York Senator seriously. In the position she’s in, it would be ridiculous for hernot to run.

*For our purposes, her terms as First Lady and Secretary of State do not count toward her total, because she was not elected to those positions.

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#17

Candidate: Jeb Bush

Absurdity Index: 40.8

What InsideGov said

Some might say that three Bushes in three decades is absurd, but by our numbers, Jeb Bush is among the most sensible of the candidates. He consistently polls at the top of the GOP field, holds more moderate positions than most of his opponents and seems to have waited for the perfect time to run.

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#16

Candidate: Lincoln Chafee

Absurdity Index: 43.0

What InsideGov said

The recent Democratic Party-convert holds moderate views and boasts 24 years of elected experience—enough to make him a logical candidate for the 2016 race. Only his extremely low polling numbers, which suggest that his candidacy will be irrelevant, bump him a few spots up this list.

Prev Next

#15

Candidate: Bernie Sanders

Absurdity Index: 43.5

What InsideGov said

The most liberal candidate in the field, Bernie Sanders will likely add a far-left voice to the Democratic primaries. That said, his decent polling numbers and 34 years of elected experience suggest he deserves to be in the conversation, regardless of his ideology.

Prev Next

#14

Candidate: Marco Rubio

Absurdity Index: 45.2

What InsideGov said: 

The Tea Party star turned respected Florida Senator boasts 15 years of experience and a solid polling average. Rubio’s sole weakness might be his strong conservative streak, which will make him less palatable in the general election. Only Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz hold viewpoints further to the right.

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#13

Candidate: Lindsey Graham

Absurdity Index: 45.8

What InsideGov said

The South Carolina Senator has all the experience you’d ever want in a president: 22 years of elected service, another dozen of active-duty military service. Still, Graham’s abysmal polling numbers suggest he has no business in an already crowded field.

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#12

Candidate: Jim Webb

Absurdity Index: 45.8

What InsideGov said

Similar to Graham, Jim Webb brings a combination of government and military service to the table, an attractive résumé that would seem to appeal to liberal and conservative voters alike. And while he doesn’t have quite as much total experience as Graham, Webb’s moderate ideology scores would make him a compelling general election contender. That said, Webb is so far behind Clinton in the polls that his candidacy likely won't last.

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#11

Candidate: Rick Perry

Absurdity Index: 47.0

What InsideGov said

Though he leans more conservative than the average GOP candidate, Rick Perry’s 35 years of elected experience—including 15 as the Governor of Texas—make Perry an immediate contender. He’ll just need to escape the shadow of his failed 2012 run, where debate gaffes unraveled an otherwise promising campaign.

Prev Next

#10

Candidate: John Kasich

Absurdity Index: 47.3

What InsideGov said

The Governor of Ohio has over two decades of experience and a balanced mix of viewpoints that could appeal to national voters. For now, only a low polling average brings Kasich down. Given that the governor hasn’t officially announced his candidacy, Kasich could quickly find himself moving down the Absurdity Index and into a short list of contenders.

Prev Next

#9

Candidate: Rand Paul 

Absurdity Index: 48.8

What InsideGov said

While he’s relatively new to the game (particularly compared to his father, Ron Paul), Paul’s Libertarian leanings will likely help the Kentucky Senator win over a small subset of American voters. His bigger problem will be garnering support from traditional Democrats or Republicans—each of which will have fundamental disagreements with his platform.

Prev Next

#8

Candidate: George Pataki

Absurdity Index: 49.8

What InsideGov said

The former Governor of New York is, by InsideGov’s count, the last of the semi-viable 2016 candidates. His polling is currently in the gutter, but his moderate views, 25 years of experience and record as a GOP governor in a liberal state all contribute to a well-rounded presidential candidate. He just needs voters to pay attention.

Prev Next

#7

Candidate: Mike Huckabee

Absurdity Index: 52.2

What InsideGov said

Part pastor, part politician and part Fox News personality, Mike Huckabee has done a little bit of everything—past positions that will help him appeal to a loyal base of Evangelical voters.

For mainstream voters, however, Huckabee’s revolving door of professions, overemphasis on religious values and lack of foreign policy bonafides make him unfit for office.

Prev Next

#6

Candidate: Ben Carson

Absurdity Index: 55.4

What InsideGov said

Famous for being the first surgeon to successfully separate twins conjoined at the head, Ben Carson is a brilliant physician, but has never been a politician. While some might be refreshed by a candidate so removed from Washington, history tells us that these candidates are the most likely to be loose canons, with offhand comments that trained politicians are smart enough to avoid. For these reasons, Carson is likely to wind up more sideshow than serious contender.

Prev Next

#5

Candidate: Ted Cruz

Absurdity Index: 59.9

What InsideGov said

New to politics and more conservative than the entire field, Cruz easily ranks among 2016’s most absurd candidates. He’ll likely provide some entertainment at debates and in interviews, but there’s no way he’ll make it past New Hampshire. Only a consistent bloc of Tea Party support in the polls prevents him from finishing in the top four.

Prev Next

#4

Candidate: Bobby Jindal

Absurdity Index: 66.5

What InsideGov said

Both highly conservative and unappealing to voters, the Governor of Louisiana has seen a sharp decline in support since he bombed a 2009 State of the Union response. The data says that neither voters nor television networks will take his bid very seriously; he may be among the first to drop out.

Prev Next

#3

Candidate: Rick Santorum

Absurdity Index: 67.2

What InsideGov said

While Santorum’s years of elected experience are about average (16), his deeply conservative views and consistently low poll numbers make him a superfluous addition to the race.

The former Pennsylvania Senator might be hoping that his deep 2012 run will help validate his bonafides as a candidate, but GOP voters already seem weary of the candidate. If anything, his presidential election history will be more of a curse than a blessing.

Prev Next

#2

Candidate: Carly Fiorina

Absurdity Index: 75.4

What InsideGov said

Fiorina’s low polling numbers and zero years of elected experience work against the businesswoman, who has been trying to transition to politics for the last decade. She deserves praise for her quick rise to senior vice president at AT&T, but her tenure at HP is more ominous.

While serving as HP’s CEO, the company underperformed in the stock market, took on billions in debt, laid off 30,000 workers and saw employee satisfaction plummet. The company’s board eventually forced her to resign. Add to that a failed Senate bid in 2010, and Fiorina has gone many years without a signature victory. It’s unlikely that the 2016 election will mean anything different for the aspiring politician.

Prev Next

#1

Candidate: Donald Trump 

Absurdity Index: 191.2

What InsideGov said

When it comes to absurdity, Trump breaks the scale. Yes, his recent poll numbers aren’t terrible, but all candidates receive bumps after officially announcing their campaigns. Instead, it’s Trump’s wacky policy positions, decades of pretend presidential runs and zero years of elected experience that earn Trump the honor of 2016’s most absurd candidate.

Trump is more likely than anyone on this list to make headlines, yet less likely than the entire field to actually become president. He’s more than twice as ridiculous as the next-most absurd candidate. When the 2016 race is all over, don’t say Trump didn’t win anything. Congratulations, Donald.

 
 

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