Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIX

Saturday, January 31, 2015

Matt LaPan, GoLocal Sports Reporter

Tom Brady will be looking for Super Bowl redemption

NFL fans have been waiting for this weekend since training camp started in August. Super Bowl Sunday is less than 48-hours away and the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are in final preparations for a chance to bring home the Lombardi Trophy. Both teams are healthy, motivated and looking to cement their respective legacies in NFL history.

The Seahawks are looking to be the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the Patriots did so in 2003 and 2004. They are also looking to get retribution for their head coach, Pete Carroll, who coached the Patriots for three years before being let go by Robert Kraft in 1999.

The Patriots are seeking their 4th Super Bowl title in franchise history, all coming since 2001. They are looking to become the 5th franchise in NFL history to win four Super Bowl titles — joining the Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are looking to both collect their 4th titles which would put Brady in the same class as Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the only quarterbacks with four Lombardi Trophy’s.

With so much on the line, both teams will look for any small advantage. Which team has the edge? Which players give their teams a better chance to take home a title?

Offense

Quarterback - Tom Brady vs. Russell Wilson

This is the matchup of the decorated veteran and the rising star. Tom Brady will be playing in his 6th Super Bowl as a starter while Russell Wilson will be competing in his 2nd in three seasons in the NFL. Each possesses qualities that will present huge problems for the opposing defenses.

Brady has the experience and savvy to read the Seahawks aggressive defense. His mastery of the Patriots playbook will allow him to put his team in the best position to exploit the deficiencies, although very few, in the Seattle defense. Brady is known for his ability to get the ball out quickly in the passing game, which could exploit the zone defense that the Seahawks are best known for.

Brady has also been in this spot before. Brady’s experience in Super Bowl games will help him to stay calm in the face of pressure from the Seattle defense. That will allow him to keep a clear head and see the field — finding holes in the Seahawks passing defense.

Wilson is a multi-dimensional quarterback, a style the Patriots have struggled with in 2014. Wilson does a terrific job moving the pocket and alluding pressure, allowing his receivers to complete their routes and get open. Wilson also has great accuracy when throwing on the run. Wilson also knows when to take his shots. Wilson is patient enough to pressure defenses to cheat up, then attack the deep part of the field. This was evident on his overtime-winning touchdown in the NFL Championship.

Wilson can also beat teams with his legs. Wilson is not afraid to tuck the ball and run when he stretches the pocket. He also runs the zone-read to near perfection with Marshawn Lynch. His speed and smarts make him a dangerous runner which showed in his 849 yards and six touchdowns during the regular season.

Wilson also showed great composure in his first Super Bowl appearance in 2013. Wilson lead for a majority of the game, making things a bit easier, but he showed the composure of a veteran quarterback.

While both quarterbacks present problems for the opposing defense, Brady’s quick passes and ability to manipulate defenses will give the Patriots the edge. Brady has too much to lose in this game to not come out with laser focus.

Advantage: Patriots

Running Backs - LeGarrette Blount, Shane Vereen, Jonas Gray & James Devlin vs. Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin & Will Tukuafu

The Patriots were carried through the AFC Championship game by LeGarrette Blount’s 148 yards. His resurgence in the Patriots have helped the Patriots get to the Super Bowl.

He is no match for Lynch, however. Lynch has emerged as one of the top running backs in the NFL. He is known as “Beast Mode”, which perfectly describes his running style. Lynch can run over, around and past defenders with his combination of size, speed and power. Lynch will also be going against a defense that has allowed an average of 109.5 rushing yards per game in the playoffs.

The zone-read game for the Seahawks is second-to-none and gives them a clear advantage on Sunday.

Advantage: Seahawks

Julian Edelman

Wide Receivers: Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola, Brian Tyms, Josh Boyce & Matt Slater vs. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Kevin Norwood, Ricardo Lockette & Chris Matthews

Both the Patriots and the Seahawks spread their offense around. Neither team has a “superstar” receiver, but both have receivers that make plays. For the Patriots, Tom Brady relies on Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell. The two have earned the trust of Brady and bring different skill sets to the table. Edelman creates matchup problems with his speed and quickness in short and intermediate routes. LaFell has done a great job attacking the intermediate and deep part of the field after a slow start to 2014. The Patriots have also received big contributions from Danny Amendola. His ability to help convert 3rd downs and take some attention form Edelman on underneath routes has been extremely valuable to the Patriots in the playoffs.

The Seahawks really only get big contributions from Baldwin and Kearse. Although the two are not considered to be elite receivers, they have a great rapport with Russell Wilson. Both are tough receivers who run good routes. they also do a great job coming back to the ball when Wilson escapes the pocket, creating big plays.

While both have their shortcomings, the Patriots receivers create more matchup problems at different levels.

Advantage: Patriots

Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanawanui & Tim Wright vs. Luke Wilson, Cooper Helfet & Tony Moeaki

Any time a team boasts a unanimous All-Pro, the advantage is clear. That is what the Patriots have in Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski is one of the most dominant players in the entire NFL and is healthy for the Patriots’ final game of the season for the first time in his career.

Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare who generally warrants a double-team, something that would help open Hoomanawanui or Wright for plays in the red zone.

While Wilson has shown that he has the trust of Wilson, he is no match for Gronkowski.

Advantage: Patriots

Offensive Line: Nate Solder, Dan Connolly, Bryan Stork, Ryan Wendell, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon & Cameron Fleming vs. Russell Okung, James Carpenter, Max Unger, J.R. Sweezy & Justin Britt

The Patriots and Seahawks have both had their up’s and down’s throughout the season along the offensive line. With both squads healthy, it is a great matchup. The Seahawks have an extremely tough interior line that is anchored by Max Unger. Unger’s health is vital to controlling Vince Wilfork and the defensive line of the Patriots. If Unger can control Wilfork, that opens Sweezy and Carpenter to get to the second level and block the Patriots linebackers.

The Patriots will likely have Bryan Stork back and healthy for the Super Bowl. His health allows Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell to stay at guard and Cam Fleming to fill in as a 6th lineman. This is extremely important for the Patriots, giving them a size advantage over the smaller Seahawks defensive line. This has been the recipe for success against Seattle this season, shown best by the Dallas Cowboys.

Although the size advantage will be big for the Patriots, the Seahawks ability to get to the second level and create confusion with zone blocking gives the Seahawks the slight edge,

Advantage: Seahawks

Complete Offense

While the Seahawks have a clear advantage in the run game, the Tom Brady factor lifts the Patriots. With Brady, Gronkowski and Edelman in the passing game, the Patriots hold the edge over Wilson and Lynch’s running ability.

Advantage: Patriots

Darrelle Revis

Defense

Interior Defensive Line: Vince Wilfork, Alan Branch, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones & Joe Vellano vs. Tony McDaniel, Kevin Williams, Jordan Hill & Landon Cohen

The Patriots have the star power when it comes to the interior line. Vince Wilfork has returned from a season-ending injury in 2013 and had a great 2014 season. As a group, however, the Patriots have seen their struggles. Since adding Branch midseason and getting Siliga back form injury, the Patriots interior line has improved, but still are susceptible to giving up a lot in the run game.

The interior of the Seahawks line had a terrific season. With Kevin Williams clogging the middle, Seattle had a top-five rushing defense. They have slipped in the playoffs, however, giving up more yards per game on the ground than the Patriots. They have showed that they are beatable when going against bigger offensive lines, which the Patriots have.

While the Seahawks would have held a huge advantage following the regular season, the postseason his shown some flaws. This one is too close to call.

Advantage: Push

Defensive Ends/Pass Rushers: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Akeem Ayers & Zach Moore vs. Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, O’Brien Schofield, Demarcus Dobbs & Bruce Irvin

The Patriots were a middling team in the regular season when it came to edge pressure. In the playoffs, it has completely disappeared. Despite a healthy, rested Chandler Jones the Patriots have not registered an official sack in the postseason. They have Jones, a young pass rusher, along with Ayers, who showed good pass rushing ability after joining the Patriots, to go along with the extremely versatile Ninkovich. This group has not been able to get it done, however.

The Seahawks have done a better job in the postseason, registering three sacks. They have also been getting consistent, sustained pressure in their run to the Super Bowl. Bennett and Avril are both extremely quick off the snap and have good moves. These men also do a good job occupying blockers, allowing the Seahawks extremely fast linebackers to make plays.

The lack of consistency could hurt the Patriots a lot against Russell Wilson.

Advantage: Seahawks

Linebackers: Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, Akeem Ayers, Jonathan Casillas, Chris White & Darius Fleming vs. Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, Bruce Irvin, Malcolm Smith, Brock Coyle & Mike Morgan

The linebackers on both sides should set the tone for Super Bowl XLIX. The Patriots have been running most of the season with just Hightower and Collins on the field, and it has worked well for Bill Belichick. Hightower’s toughness and instincts combined with Collins’ amazing athletic ability and growth as defender has made the duo one of the top linebacker duo’s in the NFL.

On the other side, the Seahawks have size, speed and athleticism as well. Wagner leads the group with his combination of size speed and instincts. Wright is a sure tackler who always seems to be in the right place at the right time. Both groups cover well, tackle well and create matchup problems when blitzing.

Both teams are extremely gifted in the middle, and should get great games from their linebackers.

Advantage: Push

Richard Sherman

Defensive Backs: Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon, Logan Ryan Kyle Arrington, Tavon Wilson, Malcolm Butler & Nate Ebner vs Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Jeremy Lane, Tharold Simon, Jeron Johnson, DeShawn Shead & Marcus Burley

There is no doubt what the featured matchup of Super Bowl XLIX is. Both the Patriots and Seahawks have elite talent in their defensive backfields. The Seahawks “Legion of Boom” has been at the top of the NFL for two season, lead by Richard Sherman’s unorthodox style and brash personality. The group has adopted that to become the most feared unit in football. They are big, fast, strong, hard-hitting with great coverage skills.

The Patriots defensive backs are lead by free agent acquisition Darrelle Revis. Revis has changed the complexion of the entire New England defense with his coverage ability. Combine him with fellow free agent acquisition Brandon Browner, a former “Legion of Boom” member, and the Patriots have size, skill and aggression. The Patriots lone weak spot comes in coverage at strong safety, where Patrick Chung struggles. He can be spelled by Duron Harmon, but the Patriots lose some of their ability to defend the run.

There is not a better defensive backfield in the NFL than the Seahawks, although the Patriots are very close.

Advantage: Seahawks

Complete Defense

The Seahawks use size, speed and attitude to intimidate and overpower opponents. They attack on the front end and play great coverage on the back end.

The Patriots defense has been vastly improved compared to year’s past, but is still a step behind the Seahawks.

Advantage: Seahawks

Special Teams: Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, Danny Aiken, Julian Edelman & Danny Amendola vs. Steve Hauschka, Jon Ryan, Clint Gresham & Bryan Walters

Both Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll preach the importance of special teams. This translates to the field as both teams are known for consistently having tremendous special teams play.

The Patriots have the most accurate kicker in the NFL, a young, left-footed punter and one of the best punt returners in the NFL. The Seahawks have a strong kicker with great accuracy, a punter who can boom the ball and a strong return game.

The Patriots get a slight edge due to their coverage units, anchored by Pro Bowler Matt Slater.

Advantage: Patriots

Score Prediction: Patriots 24 Seahawks 20

This should be an instant classic. With the two team’s so evenly matched, it is going to come down to who makes that one extra play. Whether on offense, defense or special teams, both teams will need to be at the top of their game to take home this year’s Lombardi Trophy.

In the end, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are looking for title number four as a duo and will get it thanks to a great game plan. Expect this to come down to the final possession with the Patriots getting Super Bowl redemption in Arizona.