Momentum Shifting in MA Governor’s Race

Monday, September 01, 2014

Nicholas Handy, GoLocalWorcester Contributor

Two recent polls of likely voters for the fast approaching Massachusetts primary election show that gubernatorial candidate Martha Coakley may be losing momentum.

According to the Suffolk-Herald poll published on August 25th, the margin between Coakley and her primary competition Steve Grossman has dwindled to a 12-point lead, a margin that was once 40-points. If Coakley is to win the primary, a recently released Boston Globe poll shows that she has just barely lost the lead to her likely Republican opponent, Charlie Baker, for the first time since polling began.

“This is going to be a race that ultimately comes down to who can get their voting base to show up at the primary,” said Erin O’Brien, Associate Professor of Political Science at UMass Boston. “Coakley’s potential downfall is that Grossman’s support is much more of a passionate support. At this point, it isn’t about trying to get any new voters, its all about getting the people who support you to go out and vote on primary day.”

While many still predict Coakley to win the primary election, there have been many questions raised about whether Grossman could pull an upset because of his more passionate base. The Globe poll shows that 48-percent of Grossman’s support will turn to back Baker if Coakley wins the primary.

Candidates React

With eight days left until the primary, all three Democratic Gubernatorial candidates – Coakley, Grossman, and Don Berwick, who in recent polls is ranked at a distant third - are trying to make their case as to why they should be the next Governor of Massachusetts.

According to all three candidates, they will be relentlessly stepping up their ground game, reaching out to their supporters and others in the coming days to sway them to get out and vote.

All three candidates are toting slightly different messages: Coakley is focused on a prosperous economy that works for the people as well as making the state better for families and working-class citizens, Grossman is getting out his message of being a proven jobs creator and a seeker of commonsense solutions, and Berwick is showing voters that he is far different than his competition, being the only candidate to support single payer health care and opposing casinos.

How much of a factor will Grossman's supporters be?

While polling numbers do not dictate the final vote, they often outline the potential support of each candidate. Even though Berwick hasn’t been brought up much in terms of winning the primary, he believes that momentum is on his side.

“This is a very dynamic race right now,” said Berwick. “I believe that my possibility for victory is very strong right now; we have thousands of volunteers throughout the state currently working with the campaign. We are currently working with these volunteers and engaging in get out and vote campaigns; this is a very exciting time right now.”

Beyond the Primary

When the dust settles and one democratic candidate moves on to face their Republican opposition (Baker currently leads his competition Mark Fisher by almost 60-points in the Herald-Suffolk poll), the level of competition is going to increase even further, requiring candidates to step up their campaigning on all levels.

Because of Grossman’s supporters being anti-Coakley, generally low voter turnouts in midterm election cycles, and Baker’s newfound lead in likely voters, Coakley – who was once viewed as a gubernatorial favorite – may now have a tough road ahead of her. According to seasoned political operative Mary Anne Marsh with the Dewey Square Group in Boston, whoever becomes the next Governor of Massachusetts will have to cater and swing a lot of middle ground votes and continually push out their message to middleclass families.

“This is going to have to be a very aggressive and spirited campaign for the Democrats to hold on,” said Marsh. “If you are a Republican in Massachusetts, you won’t be able to become governor without getting some Democrats to vote for you. I think this will be a competitive race that comes down to who can get a larger percentage of the swing voters and Democrats that don’t typically vote in midterm elections.”