Worcester’s Demographic Shift Creating Uphill Battle for Republicans

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Nicholas Handy, GoLocalWorcester Contributor

Can Baker stay competitive in Worcester?

Throughout the past decade or so, the city of Worcester has blossomed into a much more diverse community, something that is altering the way that the city leans when voting.

While the many of the cities throughout Central Massachusetts are becoming more Republican, Massachusetts’ second largest city is becoming more Democratic, a byproduct of the influx of non-white voters inhabiting the city who historically vote overwhelmingly Democratic. When looking at election data for previous gubernatorial races, no Republican candidate for governor has been able to pull off a victory without remaining at least competitive in Worcester.

“This governor’s race will probably be won or lost in Central Massachusetts,” said Paul Giorgio, a longtime political activist in Worcester. “The county is becoming more and more Republican but the city itself remains a Democratic stronghold. Baker is going to have to keep it close in Worcester if he has any shot of winning, which could be hard for him because he has no urban appeal.”

While Massachusetts as a whole has shifted demographically – becoming 5-percent less white from 2012 to 2002 – an even larger shift has been seen in Worcester. In 2000, Worcester’s population was 79.8-percent white compared to 69.4-percent white in 2010, the most recent data provided by the Census.

Urban Politics

Worcester may not be the deciding city in terms of gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts, but the city certainly should not be overlooked as a very important piece of the puzzle.

In the past two gubernatorial elections – both won by Democrat Deval Patrick – the Democratic candidate gathered between 10,000 and 20,000 more votes than the Republican opposition. Comparatively in the two elections held before that in 2002 and 1998, the Republican candidate (Romney in 2002 and Cellucci in 1998) were able to keep the race closer in Worcester, having 4,718 less votes in 2002 and 781 votes in 1998, which helped the Republican candidate to victory both times.

As urban politics continue to evolve and become more Democratic, Republicans are oftentimes on the outside looking in, trying to find anyway they can to appeal to voters in urban areas because they represent the largest voting pools in the state.

Since Republicans historically do not poll well among non-white voters, losing votes in these high population areas throughout the state creates a narrow path in which Republican candidates can march to victory. Although not impossible to overcome, the evolving role of demographics in politics is something that those who study urban politics say will continue to play a large role in election cycles.

While Worcester County has become a GOP hotbed, Worcester the city has remained a Democratic stronghold as made evident by this voting map of the Markey v. Gomez race in 2013

“These numbers definitely create an uphill battle for Charlie Baker or any other Republican candidate to win in Worcester and other urban areas,” said Erin O’Brien, Associate Professor of Political Science at UMass Boston. “A good candidate can overcome demographics that are stacked against them but it certainly presents a host of challenges. And as these cities continue to expand and evolve, demographics are going to begin to play an even larger role than ever before.”

Bucking the Trend

While Baker is certainly facing an uphill battle in the upcoming election, Republicans seem more optimistic than ever that Baker can pull out the win in less than two weeks.

Although there hasn’t been a poll breaking down demographics or locations for Massachusetts likely voters, Baker has consistently remained close in all polling against Coakley, with the most recent Boston Globe poll showing that they are neck and neck. While it doesn’t seem like Baker will win the city of Worcester himself, Republicans feel that if he can keep it close in the city and continue the trend of winning Worcester County – which is much more Republican – then Baker will be the next governor of Massachusetts.

“From what I have heard from local pollsters and political folks, it would appear that Baker may be polling pretty close in Worcester and other urban areas right now,” said Bill McCarthy, a Worcester Representative for the MassGOP State Committee. “Having Karyn Polito running with him is certainly beneficial. I think that if he can stay competitive in Worcester, he has a great shot of winning the election in November.”

Related Slideshow: MA Election Predictions: Political Experts Weigh In

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Paul Giorgio

GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™

MA Governor: Coakley

9th Worcester (House): Green

12th Worcester (House): Naughton Jr.

17th Worcester (House): Belanger

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex): Gobi

Worcester Senate (Worcester 1st): Chandler

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Chris Pinto

Worcester Republican City Committee

MA Governor: Baker

9th Worcester (House): Green

12th Worcester (House): Wyatt

17th Worcester (House): Belanger

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex): Valenzola

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Norfolk): Fattman

Worcester Senate (Worcester 1st): Franco

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Bill McCarthy

Worcester Representative, Massachusetts Republican Party

MA Governor: Baker

9th Worcester (House): Muradian

12th Worcester (House): Wyatt

17th Worcester (House): Campanale

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex): Valanzola

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Norfolk): Fattman

Worcester Senate (Worcester 1st): Franco

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Erin O'Brien

Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass Boston

MA Governor: “Right now, the polls are suggesting a toss up. I think that Coakley has the support of the numbers game; there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans in Massachusetts. But I think that Baker has the advantage of there not being a higher profile race on the ballot. There are also a lot of people who think that what happened to Coakley in losing to Scott Brown in 2010 may happen again against Baker.”

MA Attorney General: “I think that Maura Healey is the biggest star to emerge from this election cycle. I think that she will win by a large margin, by as much as 20-30 points.”

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Tobe Berkovitz

Associate Professor of Advertising, Boston University

“Right now, I think the governor’s race is too close to call. I think that Massachusetts sort of has a political burnout at the moment; I think that the Brown v. Warren race sucked the energy out of the politicos. And when you look at Baker and Coakley, both candidates are solid but neither is the definitive candidate that either party can fully stand behind.”